Monday, November 3, 2008

Final Election Prediction: McCain 273 Obama 265

I just put my final election predictions into the electoral college calculator and came up with the number above. In particular I predict the following in the "swing" states:

Obama wins: Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin

McCain wins: New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida

If McCain were to lose Pennsylvania his other best chance I think is to carry Virginia and Colorado, giving him 274.

In retrospect I have to wonder if Michigan wasn't a lost opportunity. It's not Obama's natural strong state and the state has been run into the ground under complete Democratic control for some time now. Of course if he carries Pennsylvania, the McCain camp will look like geniuses.

Obviously if Florida and Ohio don't come through the race is Obamas.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

98% of eligible voters in MI have registered, thanks to massive drives in Ann Arbor, East Lansing, and Detroit (i.e. the most democratic areas). With that and the fact that Michigan's unemployment is the worst in the nation, I'm not sure that McCain had much of a shot there.

Personally I also think that Obama will take PA easily (by more than Kerry or Gore), and Obama will end up with at least 286 votes, probably more like 338 or 353 because OH, NV, FL, NC, MO, and IN are all in play, with the first 4 leaning blue.

Anonymous said...

Now that Obama has announced his plans to flush the coal industry, PA looks a lot better for McCain.

Anonymous said...

"Now that Obama has announced his plans to flush the coal industry, PA looks a lot better for McCain."

McCain supports cap and trade legislation and his plans are bad for the coal industry, too. Also, I'm not sure how much traction this coal issue will get in 24 hours. Just because we're political junkies and we know about it doesn't mean PA will find out in time to vote tomorrow. But again, if they knew the whole story (McCain's plans and impact on coal), it wouldn't change things.

Anonymous said...

"John McCain Will Commit $2 Billion Annually To Advancing Clean Coal Technologies. Coal produces the majority of our electricity today. Some believe that marketing viable clean coal technologies could be over 15 years away. John McCain believes that this is too long to wait, and we need to commit significant federal resources to the science, research and development that advance this critical technology. Once commercialized, the U.S. can then export these technologies to countries like China that are committed to using their coal - creating new American jobs and allowing the U.S. to play a greater role in the international green economy."

(from his website)

This sounds quite different from Obama's bankrupt the coal industry plan, don't you think?

Anonymous said...

In short: the RWP couln't be more wrong.

yet another anonymous said...

Actually, RWP was totally on target, because his final assertion:

>Obviously if Florida and Ohio don't come through the race is Obamas

actually came true, and was worded in such a manner as to obliterate all preceding claims.

Once again, RWP's prediction is spot-on, as always! :-)

dave3544 said...

oops.

You know I am a loyal fan. But we won convincingly and hopefully the next eight years will be just as painful as the last eight years were for us.
Of course, as a university/public employee, you will benefit from Democratic rule than we did under the GOP

dave said...

Nice dave3544, wishing pain on another: "hopefully the next eight years will be just as painful as the last eight years were for us," Nice way to show your true colors.

dave3544 said...

Oh Dave, don't worry about. We're about to make this country and this world a better place and you and RWP will enjoy it right along with those of us that made it happen.

right-wing prof said...

LOL, which part of the world are you going to start with and how will you make it better?

Anonymous said...

RWP,

I am a Political Science LWP with roots in Western PA and Ohio and work experience in DC, IN & NY.

Without such understandings, it is not wise to call elections.

Meanwhile enjoy the next 4 years at least (of sanity).

LWP