I just put my final election predictions into the electoral college calculator and came up with the number above. In particular I predict the following in the "swing" states:
Obama wins: Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin
McCain wins: New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida
If McCain were to lose Pennsylvania his other best chance I think is to carry Virginia and Colorado, giving him 274.
In retrospect I have to wonder if Michigan wasn't a lost opportunity. It's not Obama's natural strong state and the state has been run into the ground under complete Democratic control for some time now. Of course if he carries Pennsylvania, the McCain camp will look like geniuses.
Obviously if Florida and Ohio don't come through the race is Obamas.