Friday, October 31, 2008

Looking like Obama peaked too soon.

With 4 days left it is starting to look like Obama peaked 10 days too soon. 10 days ago polls were showing him up 7-9 points, now the major tracking polls (Gallup, IBD, Rasmussen) have shown the race tightening to around 3-4 points and today's one-day Zogby poll shows McCain AHEAD of Obama 48-47. Meanwhile, with Obama in Iowa and McCain/Palin still hitting Pennsylvania hard, I think the McCain camp is starting to see the road to 270 come into focus.

Also, Obama is really starting to make mistakes. Kicking reporters from major media outlets off your plane because their editorial boards endorsed McCain? Openly discussing that you are putting your cabinet together? Blowing off the usual hotel ballroom to have an outdoor spectacle in Chicago for 1 million plus people, which is essentially planning a huge victory bash a week before the election. Charging reporters thousands of dollars for a place to file their stories from the party. I don't think Americans will take kindly to this kind of presumptuous behavior when they have not even voted yet.

Meanwhile he is disrespecting those who donated money to him by blowing through it at a ridiculous rate while continuing to ask for more. $4 million plus to by multiple networks out on Wed night when one would suffice. $700,000+ for lighting/set for his Berlin spectacular, $1million plus for the "victory" party. Obama blew through more than $110 million in two weeks of October, he is showing no respect for those Americans who sacrificed to donate to his campaign.

I find the idea of a McCain electoral college victory and popular vote defeat to be delicious, I can already hear the howls of outrage from the left. As of today I am standing by my prediction of a McCain victory, although I must unfortunately take Michigan out of the McCain column, I see McCain coming in with around 275 electoral votes.

16 comments:

Ewan said...

Are you accepting bets on this prediction of a McCain win? :)

right-wing prof said...

I would if I were not trying to remain anonymous. McCain is trading at 17cents at intrate, i.e. 17cents will get you $1 if he wins. I'd be willing to buy him for 30 cents, maybe 40.

Anonymous said...

Nobody likes Obama anymore; he's too popular.

AP

Dawg Doc said...

Have you put your money up at Intrade? I'll take your bet, just click my profile and email me directly!

I have no idea what you're banking on but I'd be pretty wary if I were you. IDB has some serious methodological issues with their polls such as undersampling voters without a landline.

Truth be told, I think McCain has a slim chance to win this thing. If he does it will be because a lot of whites ultimately couldn't pull the lever for a black man. If Obama loses, I certainly hope the numbers show that race was not the reason. Because then I'll really be ashamed of my country.

Dawg Doc said...

Where are you getting this one day Zogby result? On their website it shows Obama up 5.

right-wing prof said...

The 3 day tracking poll shows it up five, but yesterday's poll (which is only a part of the 3 day poll) You can see it here:

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1623

As for being ashamed of your country, don't be too ashamed. Keep in mind that, were Obama white, all else being equal, he probably wouldn't be a senator now and he surely wouldn't be the nominee.

Dawg Doc said...

That's the page I checked. I see nothing on there that says the Obama lead is just 1 point or that McCain is ahead.

I'll stand by my prediction:

Obama 364 52.5%
McCain 174 46.1%

right-wing prof said...

If you don['t see it go to drudge and click the headline. Here is Zogby's quote:

Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."

Dawg Doc said...

Prof,

I see where you're getting that but I wouldn't put much stock in an anomaly of 400 voters.

If the results are the same by Monday, I'll worry...but not much because I don't really care who wins. I will admit though that a Palin presidency scares the hell out of me.

Anonymous said...

"...a Palin presidency scares the hell out of me."

This is natural, since she's not nearly as wise as Joe "we kicked Hezbollah out of Lebannon" Biden, the foreign policy genius of the team.

Anonymous said...

Wishful thiking...

Firla said...

Yes, his spending habits are unbelievable. I opined on this as well.

Alex said...

You should do a post on what states you think will go to which side to come up with that 275 prediction. Are you predicting PA in the McCain camp after the publicizing of the coal bankruptcy comments?

right-wing prof said...

I've been predicting PA in the McCain column all along, especially considering how badly Obama got thumped there by Hillary plus his bitter cling to guns and religion comment and now the coal comment. Also because McCain/Palin have been there almost every day and the Democratic governor has been begging Obama to come back to the state.

Ewan said...

I think we can relax (and take the money) now...

Anonymous said...

Indeed flawed by wishful thinking.